Google: 10 years from now

In the future, will we finally have flying cars? Maybe, maybe not – but Google will still definitely run the web.

In the next day or so you'll probably find yourself hearing a lot about how Google started 10 years ago, and, well, isn't it remarkable that a company that started in a garage has survived that long and become a household name? I'm not going to do that. Hell, that's what Wikipedia and the official Google history are for.

I'm more interested in Google's next 10 years – because that could define what life is like in 2018 and beyond. I'm not exaggerating. And if I'm wrong, you can come back and beat me over the head with a printout of this piece.

An interesting generic forecast came from John Battelle, who wrote Search, a book about how Google catapulted to the top of the search – and more importantly search advertising pile – over AltaVista, Yahoo, Lycos (remember Lycos? Adverts used a dog sniffing stuff out) and Ask Jeeves (Jeeves got whacked; now it's just Ask).

His prediction? "I'd say, by then they'd have made a couple big ass mistakes and most likely one of the key founders is gone," he forecast. "But they still [will] rule the world in terms of monetization of traffic of good intent."

It's not as though Google hasn't already made some mistakes. There's been its (purposeful) concession to China's demands to filter its content; and the (accidental) release by AOL of lots of personal data gathered by Google from AOL users. Until the latter, people hadn't realised quite how easy it was to find an individual from their searches.

To get an idea of what Google will look like in 10 years' time, it helps to imagine the world then. Important trends are visible already. Energy, food, and oil and coal byproducts will all be more expensive in real terms. That means first that power efficiency will be essential in any product we use; minimising wasted energy and effort will be part of daily life. Minimising waste, in fact, will be sensible; we'll reuse and recycle because it'll often be preferable to buying to buy new.

In computing, there are important trends that are only just starting. The rise of ultraportables (or Liliputers) – really small yet fully functional computers, with solid-state drives – is a key trend. This will bring Linux to a wider market that would never have used it before.

Mobile phones are becoming even more important; their penetration is a key indicator of economic growth in developing countries. They'll become portable internet devices for the times when we don't want to use our ultraportables.

A final point before we move into the predictions: companies develop a lot less in their second decade than their first. Though it helps to be a multibillion pound company if you do want to have a stab at continuing your dramatic growth.

OK, so what should we expect from Google in the next 10 years?

First, Android, its mobile phone platform, is very important. Google wants to be in your mobile phone where you're making searches and calls. It wants to know what you're doing there so it can persuade companies to advertise with it. After all, if you're a company and all the mobile phone traffic you see comes via an Android phone, you're going to listen with more interest to Google's ad sales people than Microsoft's.

Here's my forecast: in 10 years, Android phones will be outselling phones using Microsoft Windows Mobile or Apple iPhones. Yes, I do think that.

Secondly, Chrome - its browser - is going to be preloaded, and often the default, in computers that you buy in shops, whether full-sized ones or the ultraportables. Google has the financial muscle to make that happen, which Firefox (owned by the Mozilla Foundation) doesn't.

In fact the ultraportables are important to this story. They are the real incarnation of what Bill Gates thought the Tablet would be. His 2001 forecast that in five years the Tablet would be the dominant model on sale was wrong. But I'll pick up his wonky prediction cap. I think that it will be true of the ultraportable in five years or so; in 10 years, surely.

And I think that ultraportable, like the Android phones, will be running Linux, because there's a lot of effort gone into developing low-power versions of it already. And they'll have Google as a default search engine, and run Chrome, which will be used to write documents and do spreadsheets and check email and work collaboratively – with the data stored both in the "cloud" (on Google's or other servers) and also saved locally, on the SQLite database that underlies Google Gears. (Data in two places. It's safe.)

Meanwhile, Google's other initiative is going to be in energy. It uses colossal amounts of energy for its server farms. It's going to be walloped by rising energy costs, which is a key reason why last November it began its "REmaking renewable energy cheaper than coal. At the time Larry Page said: "With talented technologists, great partners and significant investments, we hope to rapidly push forward. Our goal is to produce one gigawatt of renewable energy capacity that is cheaper than coal. We are optimistic this can be done in years, not decades." (One gigawatt can power a city the size of San Francisco. Or a few Google server farms.)

And, quite possibly, Google will sell some of that energy to the electric grid. How would you like to have your Google-laden ultraportable powered by green Google electric juice? Now there's a capture of the market for you.

Into this scenario I can see a couple of clouds that will loom. Larry Page and Sergey Brin have had their differences; I suspect that Battelle is right that one of them will leave within the next decade, and how Google reacts to that will be key to its future.

The other two things that will be a problem are that China will resist Google, because its authoritarian government cannot contemplate the openness of information the search engine represents. China, already the largest internet nation, will be stubbornly closed to Google's best endeavours.

The other is that there is going to be one hell of an antitrust case coming. Google's in so many places at so many times, and so dominant particularly in search, that it cannot avoid this: it'll move into some new market, and someone will raise a huge stink about how it is using its power in search to take over a new market. (A reminder: having a monopoly isn't illegal. Using that monopoly to force others out of other markets is.)

As Microsoft discovered, fighting an antitrust case takes the creative wind out of your sails; it becomes all you can do to row to shore. The Microsoft of 10 years ago was cocky, confident; today it's vast, but uncertain, overwhelmed by its bureaucracy. That could be Google's fate – even as in 10 years we use its tools all the time, and a significant number of people use phones and computers based around its products, it will be becoming sclerotic.

And then it will be time for something completely new to burst onto the scene. Very probably the people who are going to do that have only just started their first day at secondary school (high school to our American readers).

You can't guess what it will be. But if some kids ask to use your garage for a computer project, my advice would be to let them – and ask if they'll let you fund them in exchange for a few shares. Ask for 10%. If it pays off, by 2030 you'll never need to work again.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/sep/05/charles.google/print

P.S- This article was officially posted on the Guardian.co.uk website and is authored by Charles Arthur.

India still top choice for outsourcing

Bangalore keeps its top position as the ideal location for global delivery services. New Delhi edges out Manila for second place

The research analyst's Global Delivery Index (GDI) released Tuesday indicated that India is still the offshoring country of choice. In its second edition, IDC's GDI ranks 35 cities in the region based on criteria such as labor and rent costs, language skills and political risk.

Two other Indian cities also made it to the top 10 list--New Delhi edged out Manila for the No. 2 spot, while Mumbai dropped three places from last year's list to seventh.

Jenna Griffin, senior research analyst for global delivery services research at IDC Asia-Pacific, told ZDNet Asia in an e-mail Thursday that Bangalore and New Delhi were attractive due to existing infrastructure, large quantity of skilled workers as well as competitive pricing. She noted, however, that the appreciating rupee was eroding the cost arbitrage.

Auckland and Beijing made significant progress over last year, moving up five and three notches, respectively. Griffin said Auckland's ranking was influenced by factors such as greater government support, an increased emphasis toward a digital economy and currency depreciation.

On the other hand, the investment into Beijing's infrastructure and the environment for the upcoming Olympic Games has sharpened the city's competitive edge, she added.

"With prices on the rise in India, locations like Beijing with established infrastructure and lower costs will be in demand," Griffin pointed out. "Beijing also has a highly skilled workforce, supported by a strong education network."

The Chinese cities of Shanghai and Dalian were also counted by IDC as among the top 10 global delivery locations. Dalian, however, slipped from No. 4 in 2007 to the current No. 9.

Griffin said: "Despite scoring very well in terms of costs, Dalian has not scored as well in terms of skills and capabilities, and lacks the strength of infrastructure that some other competing locations have."

The analyst noted that Dalian receives support at a federal level as it is one of the cities identified under the Chinese Ministry of Commerce's 1000-100-10 project. However, support from local government also plays an important role. "[From that point of view,] other competing cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have an inherently stronger starting position," she added.

According to Griffin, there will be an increase in the number of Chinese cities considered as optimal global delivery locations by 2012. Xian, for instance, will become a top 10 offshoring destination for businesses.

In the short-term, the rise of Chinese cities will not have much impact on India, said Griffin.

"Political support and the efforts of bodies like Nasscom (National Association of Software and Services Companies) are helping to keep Indian cities positioned as optimal global delivery locations," she explained.

Vivian Yeo, Business Week

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jun2008/gb20080627_427461.htm?chan=search

Airport branding is the new rage

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seen new brands take shape and old brands put on a new face. But for the first time in Indian history, airports, the gateway to a city, are being treated as brands. Four airports are being branded currently, Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru and Hyderabad. The exercise has been taken up by the Bengaluru based brand consultancy, Ray+Keshavan.

What about conflict of interest with one agency handling all four airports? Sujata Keshavan, managing director and executive creative director, Ray+Keshavan, says, “We clarify to our clients beforehand that we cannot offer them exclusivity. Each of them was aware that we were working on more than one project in the same category.”

Bengaluru International Airport

Chattrapati Shivaji International Airport

Delhi Indira Gandhi International Airport

Hyderabad Rajiv Gandhi International Airport

Keshavan says that airports, by their very nature, don’t compete with one another, unlike, say, the cola majors, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo. Exclusivity is vital in the FMCG sector and companies in that sector are paranoid about competition, she says. She recounts an incident when her agency was offered work on Tata Tea, but had to turn down the offer because it was already working at the time on a Hindustan Unilever Ltd tea brand.

A study was commissioned by Bengaluru International Airport Ltd (BIAL) and conducted by Ray+Keshavan for the Bengaluru International Airport. Anjana, head, corporate communications, BIAL, says, “The results showed that the new airport had to reflect all that the city stood for.” Accordingly, the logo of the airport and its terminal design represent Bengaluru’s lakes, gardens and pleasant climate.

Says Vijay Vancheswar, group head and vice-president, corporate communications, GMR Group, which has developed and modernized the Delhi and Hyderabad airports, “Branding will become very important in times to come because air traffic is witnessing growth at the higher end of double-digit figures.”

He explains, “Airports are touch points for passengers and users. This creates huge impact in terms of the passengers’ emotional, psychological and physical experiences. Therefore, branding is an essential element in providing the desired experience and recall.”

Thus, the issue is one of positioning airports as important destinations beyond mere transportation. With the privatisation of airports, developers are focusing on providing passengers a qualitatively rich experience. The result is increased competition among the airports. In this scenario, branding is important because it creates differentiators. Prior to the branding initiative of the airports, the differentiators were largely basic issues such as managing the functional needs of passengers while they were in the airport and capitalising on airport locations to generate larger non-aeronautical revenue streams such as retail and commercial business opportunities.

Talking about the branding initiative at the Delhi and Hyderabad airports, Vancheswar says, “We have tried to highlight the basic ethos, culture and the distinct character of the location in the branding.”

Mumbai International Airport (Pvt.) Ltd (MIAL) came out with a logo in August 2006. The logo is in the form of a peacock feather with CSIA (Chattrapati Shivaji International Airport) inscribed within it. The new identity denotes pride in India, focusing on people and providing quality service and global standards. “We wish to give it (the airport) the vibrancy of India, and Mumbai in particular. While being traditionally Indian, the logo bears a very contemporary look,” says Manish Kalghatgi, general manager, corporate communications, MIAL.

Arvind Hegde, senior consultant, Ray+Keshavan, says the privatisation of the airports has led to a strategic shift. He says the city, its culture, its personality and the holding company were all kept in mind while finalising a strategy for each airport. Mumbai is depicted as a gateway to Indianness. BIAL is depicted as a gateway to South India. Delhi and Hyderabad are depicted on the basis of their environmental graphics.

Hegde suggests five positioning possibilities – on the basis of infrastructure, product, execution and skills, personality and vision. He cites several examples from abroad. The Atlanta airport, he says, is an example of an airport that is robust in infrastructure and size. The airports at Amsterdam and Changi are based on strong product concepts. The Frankfurt airport depicts efficiency in skills. Perth has a personality based airport. The airports in Hong Kong and Brussels are strategised on the larger causes of improving the economy and helping Europe, respectively.

Hegde says he believes that it is necessary to socialize the airport brand with its consumers. According to him, once each airport takes it final shape, collectively, they will improve the image of the country. As in other cases, branding will create value for the owners and add to their reputation.

With airport branding in its nascent stage, one can only see a rise in the competition among private owners, with each one trying to make its property bigger than the others.

Source:http://www.afaqs.com/perl/news/index.html?sid=21462#